Just eight weeks prior when Morgan Rogers stood on the Sunderland turf, appearing bewildered while his coach berated him over failing to anticipate a penetrating pass. During that period, with the team went six without a win, the question was if his performances were a symptom or the source for the team's wider issues.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
On Sunday, in contrast, the sideline response was entirely much more joyous. As Rogers curled home his second strike to reclaim the lead for Villa, the Spanish tactician ripped off his winter coat, opened his arms and shouted in triumph. The Birmingham club were on their way to a tenth straight victory and despite not winning their initial half-dozen fixtures, are somehow only three points behind table-toppers Arsenal.
Is This Team Legitimate Title Contenders?
It remains an exceptionally difficult query to resolve. The historical record, the perceived status of the club, suggests not. Furthermore, their performances haven't been entirely convincing in many games, even as the wins have stacked up.
Per statistical analysis, twice all season has the side had an xG more than 0.5 greater than the other team. For a club that have put together a ten-match winning streak, the Villans appear curiously susceptible – yet at the moment the fine lines are going in their favour.
The Winning Formula
Their recent policy seems to be to engage in a shootout with an opponent before hoping their star man to rescue them with some crisp finishes. This occurred at Leeds, it occurred against West Ham, and once more when facing Manchester United.
Rogers' first goal came from a brilliant finish, arced right inside the goal frame from a wide position. His brace-completing goal was essentially a slightly less clean iteration of his first capitalizing on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
Can It Last?
Logic says not. In the recent win, Manchester United managed a greater number of attempts and more efforts on goal. The team has triumphed in eight consecutive games by a single goal. The defence has been breached in nearly all of those matches.
Regression to the mean might be the most significant challenge Villa must confront over the coming weeks. Their key man, almost certainly, cannot keep on thrashing the football into the top corner forever.
A Case for Belief
Could it be an alternative path in which, instead of outcomes regressing to match displays, performances begin to trend towards results. Important figures might still find their top level.
- The centre-forward could start scoring again.
- The attacking talent might become the performer he resembled in Germany.
- Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres are due to come back from the treatment room, bolstering a sometimes shaky backline.
This could contain the possibility for a sustained push, however, it is improbable cannot keep relying on one man.
Enjoying the Ride
But then, this was unforeseen. Nobody thought the team would sit in a Champions League place in December. And certainly two months ago, nobody thought the midfielder by the end of the year would be at the forefront of a championship pursuit and appearing as a crucial Three Lions star.
This remarkable period is to be savoured exactly since it seems so surreal. As the match-winner faced the home supporters at the final whistle leading the celebrations, he seemed to be thoroughly enjoying it. A feeling he has rightly earned. Such periods are rare in football and must be appreciated.
