Ten years after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that split the nation and caused turmoil, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have examined the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is looming, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unification has masked the lack of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in academia but scarcely any elected officials or activists want to engage even with the essentials. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, none of the commentators supports unification or the current situation. Both authors two essays that strive for impartiality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and social figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass national emblems, duties, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated the writer. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they prefer unification but oppose increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his era is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate points, he said. "One side will win here and somebody will in the end lose but each side has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must join the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
